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Defense! Defense! Five Stocks That Win in Every Market Scenario
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In a shaky stock market environment, there is no better place to turn than the defense contractors. Leading the S&P index by about 20% in 2008 (the 8th straight year of better relative performance), the so-called “big five” have their work cut out for them in 2008 and beyond. It is pretty much a foregone conclusion that defense spending will increase this year.
With high global threat levels, the United States defense budget has historically increased regardless of the presidential party in power. Don’t listen to the fools that tell you a democrat president will cut the defense budget, that is simply not true. The funding put into homeland security as well as our defense budget is set to increase (President Bush recently introduced a .1 trillion dollar budget) regardless of the War on Terror’s outcome, and the big five defense firms are set to benefit.
There are pros and cons to each of the main defense contractors, but I want to defend the notion that they are all winners in this environment. Which companies? I am talking about United Technologies, Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics, Raytheon and Northrop-Grumman.
United Technologies (NYSE: UTX)
UTX is the largest of the Defense companies, and offers a favorable mix of risk-reward at this point. A widely expected healthy first quarter could be a huge catalyst for the rest of the year. United Technologies does everything from industrial turbine engines to elevators, and it is this diversity that really makes them the General Electric of defense contractors. The weak dollar actually bolsters a potential earnings beat (+15%) for 2008, despite a rocky economy, because European sales account for about 25% of United Technologies’ total.
Many investors have voiced concern over the recent announcement to acquire Diebold. I believe that speculation since the bid isn’t likely to be hostile and the relative size of the expense is small on UTX’s books. Other potential risks include a weakening in commercial construction markets and a slowing residential construction recovery, but I think that a strong aerospace backlog along with a geographic diversity balances their resume enough to ensure a strong year under even the worst conditions.
Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT)
Lockheed Martin is the kind of company that never gives you the value you want, but always performs with off the charts fundamentals and margins. I think a lot of analysts with HOLD ratings on the firm are underestimating LMT’s ability to drive profit out of even the bleakest of market conditions. This company has the most risk behind a 2009 administration changeover, but the threat posed is hyped beyond what will actually happen in my honest opinion.
Truth be told, I’d rather have you in a different defense contractor in the short term, but LMT’s performance is truly remarkable and I still have a BUY on these perennial EPS outperformers. They were up 32.8% during the last 2001 recession, and are poised to outperform the market again in 2008. What’s more, their 10-year annualized return is up at 7.3%. What I am trying to say is, Lockheed Martin is historically one of the top performers in a recession, and this go-round shouldn’t be any different.
General Dynamics (NYSE: GD)
General Dynamics is poised to be the largest holding in the Nittany Lion Fund, LLC., and I am generally stoked about their prospects for the year. GD has a leading market position in the areas essential to the U.S. military and has a strong track record of generating capital under every market condition imaginable.
The new Gulfstream G650 aircraft, from the leading unit of GD Aerospace, has really improved on fuel efficiency and speed (among other things) and I feel like the long-awaited release could really benefit sales. This is pretty much the world to GD, and offers a huge amount of visibility with low risk. Other than this, I continue to recommend General Dynamics because of their “no surprises” business model that continues to perform well, offering beatable 2008 EPS guidance and great long term prospects, that guarantees a safe investment.
Raytheon (NYSE: RTN)
RTN is really a conviction buy in the fact that they have an increasing foreign exposure, above average cash flow and a recession-proof portfolio. A lot of investors have Raytheon as the #1 defense company stock for 2008, and I really can’t argue with them. I do not like the fact that this company is overly tied to the Bush Administration, and would be effected slightly by a reduced US presence in Iraq or a more pro-China President (because of arms supplies to Taiwan). However, you need to consider that the defense budget is relatively stable.
Raytheon is set to benefit from some big contracts in homeland and border security, such as a + billion Saudi middle east border contract and the ability to capitalize on cyber security after acquiring Oakley. Strong foreign orders and redeployment of cash should drive Raytheon into a profitable 2008/2009, and I stand by the hype.
Northrop-Grumman (NYSE: NOC)
All the buzz over Northrop-Grumman has been the contract win over Boeing to supply a new tanker worth a potential billion. Despite Boeing’s dispute, NOC will more than likely come out with the win on this one. Regardless, I feel that the bigger development is Northrop’s “Guardian System,” a missile-jamming “pod” that can be attached to aircraft to prevent them from getting shot down in hostile flight areas. Before this system was released on March 26th, it was widely expected to favor Raytheon and BAE Systems… I think this can be a huge driver for NOC that has really gone unnoticed in the market.
Northrop is a steady performer at an attractive price. With a PEG at 0.88 and a Beta at just 0.38, they seem to be ripe for investment. Not only are the valued well, but they have that low debt that we love (debt/equity is just 0.23). The numbers are good, they are getting contracts nobody thought they would get, and they carry low risk in a poor market environment. NOC is good.
The power behind defense in a down market is the ability to lock in contracts, backed by a rising national defense budget, for the long term. The big five all have their advantages, and I would expect most of them to capitalize regardless of what twists and turns are in store for the rest of the market. Sometimes, the best offense is a good defense!
-The Net Fool
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Home Page > Finance > Investing > Defense! Defense! Five Stocks That Win in Every Market Scenario
Defense! Defense! Five Stocks That Win in Every Market Scenario
Edit Article |
Posted: Mar 29, 2008 |Comments: 0
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In a shaky stock market environment, there is no better place to turn than the defense contractors. Leading the S&P index by about 20% in 2008 (the 8th straight year of better relative performance), the so-called “big five” have their work cut out for them in 2008 and beyond. It is pretty much a foregone conclusion that defense spending will increase this year.
With high global threat levels, the United States defense budget has historically increased regardless of the presidential party in power. Don’t listen to the fools that tell you a democrat president will cut the defense budget, that is simply not true. The funding put into homeland security as well as our defense budget is set to increase (President Bush recently introduced a .1 trillion dollar budget) regardless of the War on Terror’s outcome, and the big five defense firms are set to benefit.
There are pros and cons to each of the main defense contractors, but I want to defend the notion that they are all winners in this environment. Which companies? I am talking about United Technologies, Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics, Raytheon and Northrop-Grumman.
United Technologies (NYSE: UTX)
UTX is the largest of the Defense companies, and offers a favorable mix of risk-reward at this point. A widely expected healthy first quarter could be a huge catalyst for the rest of the year. United Technologies does everything from industrial turbine engines to elevators, and it is this diversity that really makes them the General Electric of defense contractors. The weak dollar actually bolsters a potential earnings beat (+15%) for 2008, despite a rocky economy, because European sales account for about 25% of United Technologies’ total.
Many investors have voiced concern over the recent announcement to acquire Diebold. I believe that speculation since the bid isn’t likely to be hostile and the relative size of the expense is small on UTX’s books. Other potential risks include a weakening in commercial construction markets and a slowing residential construction recovery, but I think that a strong aerospace backlog along with a geographic diversity balances their resume enough to ensure a strong year under even the worst conditions.
Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT)
Lockheed Martin is the kind of company that never gives you the value you want, but always performs with off the charts fundamentals and margins. I think a lot of analysts with HOLD ratings on the firm are underestimating LMT’s ability to drive profit out of even the bleakest of market conditions. This company has the most risk behind a 2009 administration changeover, but the threat posed is hyped beyond what will actually happen in my honest opinion.
Truth be told, I’d rather have you in a different defense contractor in the short term, but LMT’s performance is truly remarkable and I still have a BUY on these perennial EPS outperformers. They were up 32.8% during the last 2001 recession, and are poised to outperform the market again in 2008. What’s more, their 10-year annualized return is up at 7.3%. What I am trying to say is, Lockheed Martin is historically one of the top performers in a recession, and this go-round shouldn’t be any different.
General Dynamics (NYSE: GD)
General Dynamics is poised to be the largest holding in the Nittany Lion Fund, LLC., and I am generally stoked about their prospects for the year. GD has a leading market position in the areas essential to the U.S. military and has a strong track record of generating capital under every market condition imaginable.
The new Gulfstream G650 aircraft, from the leading unit of GD Aerospace, has really improved on fuel efficiency and speed (among other things) and I feel like the long-awaited release could really benefit sales. This is pretty much the world to GD, and offers a huge amount of visibility with low risk. Other than this, I continue to recommend General Dynamics because of their “no surprises” business model that continues to perform well, offering beatable 2008 EPS guidance and great long term prospects, that guarantees a safe investment.
Raytheon (NYSE: RTN)
RTN is really a conviction buy in the fact that they have an increasing foreign exposure, above average cash flow and a recession-proof portfolio. A lot of investors have Raytheon as the #1 defense company stock for 2008, and I really can’t argue with them. I do not like the fact that this company is overly tied to the Bush Administration, and would be effected slightly by a reduced US presence in Iraq or a more pro-China President (because of arms supplies to Taiwan). However, you need to consider that the defense budget is relatively stable.
Raytheon is set to benefit from some big contracts in homeland and border security, such as a + billion Saudi middle east border contract and the ability to capitalize on cyber security after acquiring Oakley. Strong foreign orders and redeployment of cash should drive Raytheon into a profitable 2008/2009, and I stand by the hype.
Northrop-Grumman (NYSE: NOC)
All the buzz over Northrop-Grumman has been the contract win over Boeing to supply a new tanker worth a potential billion. Despite Boeing’s dispute, NOC will more than likely come out with the win on this one. Regardless, I feel that the bigger development is Northrop’s “Guardian System,” a missile-jamming “pod” that can be attached to aircraft to prevent them from getting shot down in hostile flight areas. Before this system was released on March 26th, it was widely expected to favor Raytheon and BAE Systems… I think this can be a huge driver for NOC that has really gone unnoticed in the market.
Northrop is a steady performer at an attractive price. With a PEG at 0.88 and a Beta at just 0.38, they seem to be ripe for investment. Not only are the valued well, but they have that low debt that we love (debt/equity is just 0.23). The numbers are good, they are getting contracts nobody thought they would get, and they carry low risk in a poor market environment. NOC is good.
The power behind defense in a down market is the ability to lock in contracts, backed by a rising national defense budget, for the long term. The big five all have their advantages, and I would expect most of them to capitalize regardless of what twists and turns are in store for the rest of the market. Sometimes, the best offense is a good defense!
-The Net Fool
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www.PennyStockPro.info – The Stock Market is a melting pot of human emotion. Fear, Greed, Envy; You’ll find it all. For those of you just starting out in Penny Stocks, you have to understand that this market is not like the NASDAQ or the NYSE. This market works on manipulation and hype. You have to realize that good fundamentals can be hard to come by simply because they do not exist, or that technicals can be manipulated by Market Makers wishing to sell you a stock. Also know that many Stock Promoters are paid to pump a stock and drive momentum, thereby increasing the price per share, just in time for a company to pull a reverse split and dilute the float leaving you broke! This is why you must be careful and do your own due diligence when playing this game. When played correctly it can make you rich! Played poorly will send you packing. One of the more popular tactics for playing penny stocks is the momentum game. This is the game we play, this is how we control the playing field and keep the market makers from ripping us off!!! We get in and get during the run up.. ….If you are new to penny stocks you are better off investing in a team of experts who know how to pick, promote and drive the price of a stock up so you can get in and out with a profit before the stock tanks! It’s a dog eat dog world here in penny land. Be smart, get on this email list while you learn the ropes, that way you don’t go broke in the mean time….
My five defensive investments against inflation Upcoming
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Home> Money> Invest> My five defensive investments against inflation Upcoming My five defensive investments against inflation Upcoming | Posted : March 21, 2009 | Comments: 0 | Views: 354 |]]> Wed All signs tell us that inflation is around the corner today, 21 March 2009 no one knows exactly how steep price increases will be If we.. expected to increase between 5% and 15% per year during the next 36 months? To what extent should we fear a much higher inflation?
Whatever the answer to this question, I am already accepting for my own investment portfolio a defensive strategy against inflation. I too am of a dividend lovers and know little about precious metals, I’m not going to buy some gold. From my perspective, there are two alternatives, the results that are roughly similar to lead buying gold.* Investing in oil companies, because sooner or later, inflation is oil prices to a higher plateau drive
* buying shares of companies that operate in countries with short . – prospects for economic growth
In this moment I am considering the following five companies for possible purchase for my own investment portfolio:
1 .- Marathon Oil (NYSE: MRO), the current low oil price they are. shares more than 40% over the previous year. your price / earnings ratio is now rising about 5 and they are yielding around 3.5%. The profits of these enterprises should, if oil prices go back to the level of a few months ago
2 .- Chevron (NYSE: CVX).. The low price of oil these days has pushed the shares down more than 20% during the last year, the current price / earnings ratio is about 5.5 and the. . yield by 3.8% This is another company that should benefit from a recovery in oil prices
3 .- China Mobile (NYSE: CHL) to increase .. your number of mobile phone subscribers and their profits should continue increase or at least remain stable. If the Chinese currency gains value, so in additional profits for international investors who run these shares. The current yield is around 3.5% and the price-earnings ratio is about 10
4 .- TELKOM INDONESIA. (NYSE: TLK). With a current yield of 8% and a price / earnings ratio of 11 to allow these shares an easy way to invest in the Indonesian economy, the company provides fixed and mobile and. serves more than 63 million customers
5 .- America Movil (NYSE: AMX) .. The price / earnings ratio is 11 and the yield is 1.5%, the company operates mobile networks in Mexico, Argentina. Chile and other South American countries. They provide services to around 150 million customers.
These five big companies should be no big surprises to offer operational. I’m afraid of risk and this is the kind of investment in I can in my own portfolio. me anyone guarantee a rise in shares of oil companies and international phone provider? No, no one can offer such a guarantee. For my own investments, I try on reasonable assumptions and these five companies seem relatively well placed to meet their to hold value when inflation is high.See John Vespasian’s
http://johnvespasian.blogspot.com/
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]]> Questions and answers questions you invest our experts your questions here … Ask 200 characters left inflation is affecting stock market? Who was the inventor of the share (stock) market) is the ? stock market overreact Journal of Finance Review this product 1 2 3 4 5 Vote (s) 0 vote (s) Comment Print E-mail to publish again Source: investing-articles/my-five-defensive-investments-against-the-upcoming-inflation-827924.html Article Tags: investing, investment, stock market, stocks, economy, inflation, personal finance Related Videos Related Items Newest Items Investing More by John Vespasian, as the coming battle inflation
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Learn to know how and when to invest in gold and silver in this series of financial advice videos. (0.56)
Stock Market
the stock market. To some it is a mystery. For others it is a source of profit and endless fascination. The stock market is the financial nerve center of a country. It reflects a change in the economy. It is sensitive to interest rates, inflation and political events. In a very real sense, he has his finger on the pulse of the world.
Taken in its broadest sense, the stock market and a control center. lViews Michael Newmanl Businessl 29 September 2009::
entry to Wall Street is barred without such a high degree of economic and social capital. The size and influence of that capital determines the level of risk aversion and acts as a limiter on the ability to consolidate wealth from the markets.
From: Aetius Romulousl Finance> Personal Financel 16th April 2009 Investing for retirement – Stock Market Riskmost people think of stock market risk as the chance that they will lose money in a particular investment. Actually, the risk of investing in the stock market falls in many Kategorien.Das Market risk is the risk that the entire market will respond. If that happens, most stocks …
From: Gary Wollinl Financel 9th May 2010 Which bodies of shares or stock markets, you should act with?
Study more about share prices of the inventory purchase and sale market. Free information about stock market and currency trading. Research on trading methods and psychology.
From: simonwarneyl Financel January 17, 2011 We must take control of our investmentsbusiness as the economy falters and the stock market slide, we have to take control of our investments.
From: Steve Carpenterl Financel 16 November 2008 stocks offer us great opportunity These DaysInvestments, as in most things in life, it all boils down to using the right methodology. How can we determine what is true? What facts are relevant? What to make predictions make sense? Can we figure out the future by applying principles derived from the experience?
From: John Vespasianl Finance> Personal Financel 15th March 2009 Investing in complex timesworld economy, world economy, the macroeconomic performance of all countries of the world economies. increase as a global society as a result of the technological, the world has a common monetary and financial systems, as do the World Bank and the IMF. In this case, the assessment of the country’s economic performance entirely on the value of the currency in the global market.
From: Carroll Finance> Personal Financel February 26, 2011 Low Risk Investment – The Out Performs Stocks & mutual funds with a lower riskLearn the cheap and easy way to do it and how the positive qualities are impressive and risk is low. Discover this threat low investment and it is possible you will not regret it.
From: aaralynl Finance> Investingl 19th March 2011 avoid losses and Ebook Income – Best Stock Market FundamentalsWith all the uncertainties, one has no option but to teach some basic rules of the financing will be on the safe side, as much as possible. Use all the tools on the Internet, such as magazines, historical data over the Internet, your broker’s advice historical past of the share, the share of current market temperament future prospectus for the Company’s products, no doubt influence of competitors on the goods from the foreign sources, etc.
From: aaralynl Finance> Investingl 19th March 2011 Two good tips for selecting the most profitable stock robot Stunning
The stock market is not just for the not high rollers. More and more people of all working classes get their toes wet outside and they do so through the use robot inventory to do the work for them.
From: aaralynl Finance> Investingl 19th March 2011 Understanding the idea of talking and working conditions of inventory managementWhile many Web sites present comparisons of the assorted stock corporations to items such as return-on-property, return on investment and return on equity based. Return on telling you things the right way shares in a company’s management uses its assets to make a profit.
From: aaralynl Finance> Investingl 19th March 2011 Investment Real Estate Vultures comments about the influx of Chinese real estate investors in the U.S.At a time would have put these people in the U.S. stock market. Now they see the opportunity of a lifetime in the nation’s weakened housing market. The idea is to rent the properties and then sell when the economy turns around.
From: SAML Finance> Investingl 18th March 2011 reasons to distrust the snap-back rally! 18. March 2011has fortunately abated the news from Japan about the potential for nuclear meltdown has, and the global stock markets have rallied in the last two days of discharge. Many on Wall Street are the property of the correction in global equity markets is therefore on, and it is a Kaufgelegenheit.Aber let’s think this through and not react too quickly.
From: Sy Hardingl Finance> Investingl 18th To March 2011 Power & Profit for precious metals partisanRecent pullbacks in gold and silver prices are always an excellent buying opportunity for those who use their positions to add. Also purchase a specific form of these metals can both improve opportunities for profit and wealth protection and increase the political power of the owner. One could also name as purchases “power purchases.
From: Deepcasterl Finance> Investingl 18th March 2011 Carbon credits are now approved for investment in a SIPP or ISASIPP compliant carbon credits now, many investors even more precisely at this point.
From: James Richardsl Finance> Investingl 18th March 2011 Failure is scary, so what?Breach of contract and delay, rather than inhibitors of human success, should be regarded as the forerunner, almost the conditions for a substantial achievement. Although the failure is disturbing and frightening, we can only appreciate its importance when we put it in a long-term context.
From: John Vespasianl self Improvementl 21 November 2010 Remember the factors that play in your favorNeither reason nor beyond the problems should be increased opportunities forgotten. Whatever you are facing challenges, it is keeping a close eye on all the factors that play in your favor. Set the list of personal property and let it shed a reassuring light on your plans for the future. With time and perspective, perhaps remembered most of today’s adversity, if any, as a small inconvenience.
From: John Vespasianl self Improvementl October 30, 2010 The importance of focusing your efforts on specific projectsExperience shows that the best way to let someone move to our views, our actions speak for themselves. The most effective use of our resources is rare for the following other people’s agendas. To achieve this, our work and objectives chosen that what we in this world for themselves. As Confucius put it so well, “teachings are worthless without a personal example.”
From: John Vespasianl self Improvementl October 30, 2010 How much effort you need to choose good investmentsThe vast majority of the population can not afford to devote hours on end following the markets. What many of us want is quite good results with a minimum reach of participation, but without giving up control of our assets.
From: John is waiting Vespasianl Finance> Investingl October 30, 2010 A good relationship for youIf someone says that you have no choice but to give yourself a break. Look hard at your situation and ask why, when and how. Once you decide to replace a failed relationship with a better future, your eyes will begin to recognize opportunities that you had never seen before.
From: John Vespasianl Relationshipsl October 20, 2010 Reclaim your good health and personal safetymaintain an optimal level of vitality should be a top priority in life, but unfortunately for many people it is not. is of course too much, and occurred after irreversible damage is, little can be done on the reduction of pain over. Prevention is better than cure, especially low-cost prevention.
From: John Vespasianl Healthl October 20, 2010 Lack of trust in the future? The chances are good that the difficulties LupeLack of trust in the future is the conviction that nothing be done to improve their own situation can developed. The size of the problems and obstacles is exaggerated. Opportunities are missed, and alternatives are not explored. The reverse process takes place when we acquire a healthy, sensible view of the world.
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