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Markets rise on Greek aid package

July 22nd, 2011 Comments off

The latest Greek bail-out involves a ‘calculated risk’ by European leaders, says the BBC’s Nigel Cassidy

Stock markets have continued to rise following the eurozone’s comprehensive agreement designed to resolve the Greek debt crisis.

UK, French and German markets gained more than 0.5% in early trading, while Japan’s Nikkei closed up 1.2%. The euro also rose further against the dollar.

Eurozone leaders agreed a further 109bn euros ($ 155bn, £96.3bn) aid package.

Private lenders will contribute to the package, which will give Greece decades more to repay its debts.

The latest Greek bailout by the 17 eurozone governments and the International Monetary Fund is part of a comprehensive package to shore up the single currency unveiled on Thursday.

Eurozone leaders hailed the comprehensive agreement.

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said: “We have sent a clear signal to the markets by showing our determination to stem the crisis and turn the tide in Greece, thereby securing the future of the savings, pensions and jobs of our citizens all over Europe”.

Debt relief

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Doubts will remain as to whether, having won a second bail-out, Greece will remain committed to unpopular austerity measures and privatisations”

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The Institute of International Finance – a global trade body representing big banks and other major lenders – said the planned debt restructuring would target participation by 90% of Greece’s private sector lenders.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy said private lenders will contribute a total of 135bn euros of financing to Greece.

The plan is expected to provide some 50bn euros of debt relief to Greece.

Three of the four options offered to lenders to swap or relend existing debts would extend Greece’s repayment terms by 30 years, while the fourth would do so by 15 years.

They all offer a much lower interest rate than Greece’s current 15%-25% cost of borrowing in financial markets.

Two of the options would also involve “haircuts” – reducing the amount of debt Greece has to repay.

The terms of the deal imply a loss to Greece’s lenders equivalent to 21% of the market value of their debts, said the IIF.

First default

The restructuring is widely expected to be declared by credit rating agencies to be a default by Greece on its debts – something European leaders have been at pains to avert until now.

Herman Van Rompuy: “This situation was… threatening the stability of the eurozone”

The ECB and France had been particularly opposed to a default, but it was ultimately insisted on by Germany.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said: “I strongly welcome the voluntary contribution from the banks. I believe that this is the right signal coming at a difficult time”.

Mr Sarkozy played down the significance of the banks’ participation in the aid package.

“If the rating agencies are using the word you just used (default), it is not part of my vocabulary. Greece will pay its debt,” he told reporters.

The deal would make Greece the first ever EU country to default, and could have a number of serious repercussions:

  • banks would be forced overnight to recognise in their financial accounts billions of euros in losses on Greek debts they own
  • these losses could in turn leave banks short of capital – making it difficult for them to lend – and could leave the Greek banks insolvent
  • Greek banks would also be unable to use their government’s debts as security to borrow cash from the ECB
  • the ECB itself stands to make major losses on Greek debts it has bought or accepted as collateral from the Greek banks
  • separately, the debt restructuring could also trigger payouts on billions of dollars of credit derivative contracts, used by financial markets to hedge against or speculate on a Greek default

The Greek bail-out package will be used to soften the blow to the Greek banks, with 20bn euros being used to recapitalise them, and 35bn euros to facilitate their continued borrowing from the ECB.

Irish interest rates

The biggest fear of European leaders is that imposing losses on Greece’s lenders could lead to contagion – a sharp increase in the rate at which markets are willing to lend to other eurozone borrowers, in particular Italy and Spain.

Debt to GDP ratios

  • Greece 142.8%
  • Italy 119%
  • Belgium 96.8%
  • Ireland 96.2%
  • Portugal 93%
  • Germany 83.2%
  • France 81.7%
  • Spain 60.1%

Source: Eurostat. Government debt expressed as a percentage of economic output.

“We would like to make it clear that Greece requires an exceptional and unique solution,” the eurozone leaders said in a statement following their meeting.

Despite their fears, markets rallied as details of the new bail-out emerged, with the cost of borrowing for all of Europe’s heavily-indebted borrowers falling.

However, the borrowing costs of Portugal and the Republic of Ireland still remain at levels that suggest markets think they too are likely to default in the next five years.

Mr Sarkozy said on Thursday there will be no imposition of losses on private sector lenders to the Irish Republic or Portugal.

Thursday’s announcement should make life easier for both countries, with the repayment dates of their rescue loans being doubled to 15 years.

It also included a 2% reduction in the Irish Republic’s interest payments, something that the Republic’s Prime Minister, Enda Kenny said would save it a “substantial” 600-800m euros a year.

Investment projects

Among the other changes announced on Thursday were plans to ultimately turn the Eurozone’s bail-out fund into a European equivalent of the IMF.

The EFSF was granted new powers to buy up bonds – necessary for it to carry out the Greek debt restructuring – and to make credit available to countries such as Spain and Italy that are not at immediate risk of insolvency.

EU development funds and loans from the European Investment Bank would be used to finance Greek infrastructure and development projects.

The move responds to criticisms from some economists that the eurozone’s previous approach of insisting that Greece implement deeper and deeper budget cuts was killing the Greek economy, and therefore self-defeating.

European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso also indicated plans to rein in the power of the credit rating agencies.

“We… endorsed the plan of reducing overreliance on external credit ratings,” he said, adding that policymakers would come forward in the autumn “with further proposals”.

Countries most exposed to Greek debt


BBC News – Business

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Stock markets fall on debt fears

July 18th, 2011 Comments off

Euro coin on a Europe mapThe stress test on banks has failed to calm nerves over Europe’s debt crisis

Stock markets fell on Monday as a healthcheck on banks failed to stem worries about Europe’s debt crisis.

Financial shares were heavy fallers, with Royal Bank of Scotland down 3.8% and BNP Paribas 3.1% lower.

In early trading the FTSE 100 index fell 0.9%, France’s Cac 40 shed 1.4%, and Germany’s Dax was 1.3% down.

On Friday, five European banks failed a stress test on their finances, while another 16 were said to be near the danger zone.

Meanwhile, the price of gold topped $ 1,600 an ounce for the first time as investors put money into the haven commodity.

Concerns among investors have also been fuelled by the Obama administration’s failure to agree a debt-ceiling deal.

The US risks defaulting on its debts unless Congress can agree new rules that will allow Washington to borrow more money.


BBC News – Business

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Stock markets fall on debt fears

July 12th, 2011 Comments off

European Union flagThe euro has fallen and the borrowing costs for Spain and Italy rose

European stock markets fell heavily on Monday, weighed down by fears that the eurozone’s debt crisis was spreading.

In late afternoon trading, Italian shares were down more than 4%, France’s Cac index fell 3%, Germany’s Dax fell 2%, and London was down 2%.

Banks across Europe were hit hard, with Italy’s Unicredit down 10%.

Eurozone finance ministers were holding talks on a new aid plan for Greece, but this was overshadowed by fears of contagion spreading to Italy and Spain.

The euro fell, while borrowing costs for Spain and Italy rose to 12-year euro-era high.

“There are tensions across the eurozone, we must find a solution,” Belgian minister Didier Reynders said to reporters on arrival at the finance ministers’ meeting.


BBC News – Business

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EU Said to Plan Releasing Stress Tests When Markets Closed

June 22nd, 2011 Comments off

The European Union’s top securities regulator is recommending the release of the bank stress-test results at night or on a weekend when global stock markets are closed, according to a person familiar with the situation.
BusinessWeek.com — Finance

U.S. Stock Fund Withdrawals Most in Six Months as Markets Fall

June 15th, 2011 Comments off

U.S. investors last week pulled the most money from domestic stock funds in six months after equities fell on concerns that the economic recovery may be faltering.
BusinessWeek.com — Finance

Chinese on Global Homebuying Spree as Local Markets Tighten

June 14th, 2011 Comments off

On a sunny Saturday in early June, Larry Zhou strolled the floor of a property exhibition in Hong Kong, wondering whether it was time to buy another home — not in the city, where residential prices have soared 50 percent in the past two years, but maybe in Thailand or Malaysia.
BusinessWeek.com — Finance

The Supercycle and Emerging Markets

June 10th, 2011 Comments off

Some investment pros see the emergence of Asian and Latin American economies as a third industrial revolution—a decades-long “supercycle”
BusinessWeek.com — Finance

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Emerging Markets Must Speed Up Rate Increases, World Bank Says

June 8th, 2011 Comments off

Emerging-market economies, growing almost three times faster than their developed counterparts, need to speed spending cuts and interest-rate increases as they fight inflation and overheating, the World Bank said.
BusinessWeek.com — Finance